New-home sales climbed 4.7% during February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 337,000, the first month-to-month increase since July, the Commerce Department said. The data marked another favorable sign for the housing market, but prices continued to decline. The median price of a new home tumbled 18% in February from a year earlier to $200,900. The median price in January was $206,800.
In another positive sign for the economy, an earlier report from the Commerce Department showed durable-goods orders unexpectedly climbed 3.4% during February.
-WSJ March 25, 2009
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Friday, March 6, 2009
Ambitious Foreclosure Plan Revealed - How Will It Help?
By Kevin G. Hall
RISMEDIA, March 6, 2009-(MCT/RISMedia)-The Obama administration on Wednesday detailed its ambitious $275 billion plan to halt soaring foreclosures nationwide, outlining the financial incentives it’s offering investors, lenders and their bill collectors to lure them into modifying distressed mortgages to keep Americans in their homes. The slump in home prices is the root cause of the global financial meltdown, so the success or failure of the administration’s housing plan is vital to ending the deepening economic recession.
Shortly before financial markets opened, the Treasury Department provided its long-awaited update to the Making Home Affordable program, which the administration thinks can help up to 9 million homeowners.
“It’s a major break with the past because it really takes up a multifaceted approach. It used several different carrots and a stick to come at a comprehensive plan to reduce the number of foreclosures,” said Kathleen Day, a spokeswoman for the advocacy group Center for Responsible Lending in Durham, N.C. “That’s the only way you’re going to stabilize the financial system.”
The plan’s details came out a day before the House of Representatives is expected to pass compromise legislation giving bankruptcy judges power that they now lack to modify the terms of certain mortgages. Bankruptcy changes are the stick to go along with the carrots-new financial incentives for lenders to modify mortgages instead of moving to foreclosure.
The Obama housing plan attacks two problems that are creating a vicious cycle in the nation’s housing market.
First, it offers $200 billion to provide refinancing for some homeowners who owe more than their homes are now worth-shorthanded as being “underwater” on their mortgages. To qualify, these homeowners-5 million of them by administration estimates-must have their mortgages in the hands of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, the mortgage finance giants that the government seized last September.
“We have been advocating for one unified approach to help modify or refinance delinquent and underwater loans and thus we think this program will undoubtedly help servicers keep more at-risk borrowers in their homes, which is a crucial step to helping stabilize the mortgage and housing markets,” stated John A. Courson, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Many of these homeowners would like to take advantage of today’s historically low interest rates and refinance but can’t, since the law prohibits refinancing if the current mortgages reflects less than 80% of the homes’ values. These homeowners now can seek to refinance if their mortgages are up to 5% higher than the present-day values of their homes. That helps some, but it won’t reach lots of homeowners in California, Florida and elsewhere whose homes are now worth substantially less than their mortgages.
Because most mortgages are bundled into securities and sold into a secondary market, it’s often difficult for homeowners to find out whether Fannie or Freddie owns their loans or whether they’ve been pooled with other loans and sold by an investment bank to other investors.
The other pillar of Obama’s plan attacks the problem of affordability. The administration provides another $75 billion in incentives to help prevent foreclosures in cases in which the homeowners, up to 4 million of them, are about to lose their homes. The money comes from the $700 billion bailout fund approved last October.
Under this complex portion of the plan, the president offers a stream of financial incentives to mortgage servicers, who are essentially bill collectors for private investors who own pools of U.S. mortgages. Some incentives stay with the servicers while others flow through to investors.
In exchange for the incentives, a servicer would modify a mortgage so that no more than 38% of a homeowner’s monthly after-tax income was taken by the monthly mortgage payment. The government then would step in and share the cost of reworking that mortgage so that no more than 31% of the borrower’s monthly income was tied up in the payment.
This could result in some mortgages carrying interest rates as low as 2% for five years. Critics think that this mortgage subsidy interferes with the natural process of letting the marketplace find the floor on home prices.
“Not only do these gimmicks prevent home prices from falling to the market-clearing levels that would give private lenders the confidence to loan, but the continued specter of subsequent government-mandated modification will keep lenders out of the game,” said Peter Schiff, the president of investment strategist Euro Pacific Capital.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told lawmakers Wednesday that the administration plan offers “a powerful set of incentives” and “persuasive force and some economic inducements to provide substantial improvements in affordability. With those changes you will be put in an economically viable position and stay in your home.”
Although lenders have worked over the past year to freeze mortgage rates that were about to adjust to higher monthly payments, few have been willing to take losses and significantly rework the loan terms. This has led to a high percentage of re-defaults on modified mortgages and avoided tackling the problem of affordability.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair pushed unsuccessfully during the Bush administration to rework loans with an eye toward affordability, and the Obama administration is implementing her ideas.
Any lender that takes new taxpayer bailout money under the administration’s Financial Stability Plan will be required to participate. The Obama team also is betting that requiring a standard guideline for mortgage modification will provide more protection to mortgage servicers, who are bound by contract to investors, not homeowners, and can be sued if they modify mortgages.
The Obama plan got a strong endorsement Wednesday from the Financial Services Roundtable, which represents many of the largest mortgage lenders.
“Our member companies intend to implement the program for all at-risk borrowers consistent with program guidelines and contractual requirements,” the group said in a statement. “For the benefit of at-risk borrowers who are facing the loss of their homes, for communities and for our nation in this time of extraordinary economic challenges, it is imperative that investors and servicers that choose to participate in the program adopt a national standard model.”
In an administration background briefing that was conducted under the administration’s insistence on anonymity in order to speak freely, it was clear that the plan is far from a panacea.
Senior government and industry officials confirmed that homeowners who seek to refinance to the new low interest rates will have to foot the bill for a range of new fees that Fannie and Freddie require. It’s not clear whether these will have to be paid upfront or can be folded into the loans.
The officials also confirmed that there’s no standard procedure for lenders under the Fannie and Freddie portion of the plan. It will be up to each lender to determine whether the refinances go through them or whether mortgage brokers and other intermediaries can help homeowners seek refinanced loans under the program.
Officials were also careful to note that mortgage servicers won’t be able to modify mortgages if the terms of their contracts with the investors who own the pools of mortgages don’t allow it. That leaves matters at square one for many homeowners, since many investors, like lenders, have been reluctant to take losses in hopes of an eventual government bailout.
Officials confirmed that they have no reliable data on how many of these investors are on the other ends of contracts that prohibit mortgage modifications. That question is important, since many of the weakest loans underwritten during the height of the housing boom, from 2004 to 2006, were sold by now-defunct investment banks to investors abroad, many in Europe.
These pools of mortgages, called mortgage-backed securities, are the so-called toxic assets that are at the heart of the global banking meltdown. This unresolved question about their contract terms is relevant to recovery in housing and the financial sector.
So, who qualifies for help of what kind? Here are some answers for consumers:
Q: How do I know if I qualify?
A: Your mortgage must predate the start of 2009, you must live in the home and you’ll have to provide proof of income. Then ask two questions. First, are you already behind on payments or even in the foreclosure process? If the answer is no, then ask yourself whether your current mortgage rate is high enough to make it worth your while to refinance to take advantage of today’s low rates for 15-year and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Q: That’s it?
A: No. If you think it’s advantageous to refinance, you must find out who owns your loan. Most mortgages are bundled together and sold into a secondary market, where investors technically own them. If Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac placed your loan into the secondary market, you can contact the company that sends your monthly mortgage statement to discuss the new program. If your mortgage is in the portion of the secondary market where the private sector issued the mortgage-backed securities, you don’t qualify.
Q: How do I know who owns my loan?
A: You’ll have to ask the company that sends your monthly statement. These companies are sure to be swamped with calls this week, so be patient. And be warned: Borrowers have found in the past that mortgage-bill collectors-called servicers-often are less than forthcoming with answers as to who owns the loans.
Q: What if my loan is owned by Fannie or Freddie but I have negative equity?
A: You’re not alone. Researcher First American CoreLogic reported Wednesday that one in five homeowners nationwide now owes more than his or her home is worth. To qualify under the refinance portion of the Obama plan, you can owe up to 5% more than your home is now worth. Thus, many homeowners in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada, where home prices have plunged, won’t qualify.
Homeowners in 250 high-cost U.S. counties can seek help under either track, however, provided that they qualify, even if the mortgage is worth up to $729,750. This could help high-income homeowners in Middle America and the Northeast, where home prices haven’t fallen as much.
Q: What about those of us who are about to lose our homes?
A: A lot will depend on whether the mortgage bill collectors, the servicers, think that they have leeway from investors to modify the loans. They’re being offered an upfront fee of $1,000 and will get “pay for success” fees for three years if a borrower’s modified loan remains in good standing. They’re being offered even more fees if they get homeowners into this program before they fall behind on payments.
Q: What happens if the servicer agrees to modify my mortgage?
A: First, the servicer has to get your monthly payment down to 38% of your monthly after-tax income. It can do this by taking a loss on the loan or stretching a 30-year loan into a 40-year, for example. It’s allowed to reduce interest rates as low as 2%.
Once the 38% threshold is met, the government matches lenders dollar for dollar to get the payment even lower, to 31% of monthly after-tax income.
This percentage is calculated on the value of a first-lien mortgage. If a home carries a second lien-often called a second, or junior, lien-the servicer will get another $250 if it extinguishes the second mortgage.
Q: Is the modification a permanent fix?
A: The new interest rate would be valid for five years. Afterward, it can rise 1% a year until the lending rate hits the conforming loan survey rate at the time of the modification. Given that mortgage rates today are low by historical standards, the loan survey rate is likely to be well below the punishing adjustable rates that are at the heart of many distressed mortgages.
Q: Do lenders have to participate in Making Home Affordable?
A: If they’re getting Wall Street bailout money and hope to get any more, then they have to play ball. Many mortgage servicers are outside this realm, however, and their trade group, the American Securitization Forum, gave only lukewarm, qualified support to the Obama administration’s plan.
Q: Is there any way to force servicers to help homeowners?
A: The House of Representatives is expected to pass legislation this week that would allow bankruptcy judges to modify mortgages. This measure, which seems to have support in the Senate, too, would let judges shave off of mortgages the difference between what homeowners owe and what their homes are now worth. This would give homeowners some leverage in negotiations.
Q: But don’t these homeowners deserve what they get for overextending themselves?
A: Some think so. There are two parties to a bad deal, however-people who bought too much home and lenders who let their underwriting standards fail in lending to them. Somebody has to lose. The Obama administration is betting that keeping owners in their homes helps set a floor under prices. Critics think that only the marketplace can find a floor for home prices.
© 2009, McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
RISMEDIA, March 6, 2009-(MCT/RISMedia)-The Obama administration on Wednesday detailed its ambitious $275 billion plan to halt soaring foreclosures nationwide, outlining the financial incentives it’s offering investors, lenders and their bill collectors to lure them into modifying distressed mortgages to keep Americans in their homes. The slump in home prices is the root cause of the global financial meltdown, so the success or failure of the administration’s housing plan is vital to ending the deepening economic recession.
Shortly before financial markets opened, the Treasury Department provided its long-awaited update to the Making Home Affordable program, which the administration thinks can help up to 9 million homeowners.
“It’s a major break with the past because it really takes up a multifaceted approach. It used several different carrots and a stick to come at a comprehensive plan to reduce the number of foreclosures,” said Kathleen Day, a spokeswoman for the advocacy group Center for Responsible Lending in Durham, N.C. “That’s the only way you’re going to stabilize the financial system.”
The plan’s details came out a day before the House of Representatives is expected to pass compromise legislation giving bankruptcy judges power that they now lack to modify the terms of certain mortgages. Bankruptcy changes are the stick to go along with the carrots-new financial incentives for lenders to modify mortgages instead of moving to foreclosure.
The Obama housing plan attacks two problems that are creating a vicious cycle in the nation’s housing market.
First, it offers $200 billion to provide refinancing for some homeowners who owe more than their homes are now worth-shorthanded as being “underwater” on their mortgages. To qualify, these homeowners-5 million of them by administration estimates-must have their mortgages in the hands of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, the mortgage finance giants that the government seized last September.
“We have been advocating for one unified approach to help modify or refinance delinquent and underwater loans and thus we think this program will undoubtedly help servicers keep more at-risk borrowers in their homes, which is a crucial step to helping stabilize the mortgage and housing markets,” stated John A. Courson, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Many of these homeowners would like to take advantage of today’s historically low interest rates and refinance but can’t, since the law prohibits refinancing if the current mortgages reflects less than 80% of the homes’ values. These homeowners now can seek to refinance if their mortgages are up to 5% higher than the present-day values of their homes. That helps some, but it won’t reach lots of homeowners in California, Florida and elsewhere whose homes are now worth substantially less than their mortgages.
Because most mortgages are bundled into securities and sold into a secondary market, it’s often difficult for homeowners to find out whether Fannie or Freddie owns their loans or whether they’ve been pooled with other loans and sold by an investment bank to other investors.
The other pillar of Obama’s plan attacks the problem of affordability. The administration provides another $75 billion in incentives to help prevent foreclosures in cases in which the homeowners, up to 4 million of them, are about to lose their homes. The money comes from the $700 billion bailout fund approved last October.
Under this complex portion of the plan, the president offers a stream of financial incentives to mortgage servicers, who are essentially bill collectors for private investors who own pools of U.S. mortgages. Some incentives stay with the servicers while others flow through to investors.
In exchange for the incentives, a servicer would modify a mortgage so that no more than 38% of a homeowner’s monthly after-tax income was taken by the monthly mortgage payment. The government then would step in and share the cost of reworking that mortgage so that no more than 31% of the borrower’s monthly income was tied up in the payment.
This could result in some mortgages carrying interest rates as low as 2% for five years. Critics think that this mortgage subsidy interferes with the natural process of letting the marketplace find the floor on home prices.
“Not only do these gimmicks prevent home prices from falling to the market-clearing levels that would give private lenders the confidence to loan, but the continued specter of subsequent government-mandated modification will keep lenders out of the game,” said Peter Schiff, the president of investment strategist Euro Pacific Capital.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told lawmakers Wednesday that the administration plan offers “a powerful set of incentives” and “persuasive force and some economic inducements to provide substantial improvements in affordability. With those changes you will be put in an economically viable position and stay in your home.”
Although lenders have worked over the past year to freeze mortgage rates that were about to adjust to higher monthly payments, few have been willing to take losses and significantly rework the loan terms. This has led to a high percentage of re-defaults on modified mortgages and avoided tackling the problem of affordability.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair pushed unsuccessfully during the Bush administration to rework loans with an eye toward affordability, and the Obama administration is implementing her ideas.
Any lender that takes new taxpayer bailout money under the administration’s Financial Stability Plan will be required to participate. The Obama team also is betting that requiring a standard guideline for mortgage modification will provide more protection to mortgage servicers, who are bound by contract to investors, not homeowners, and can be sued if they modify mortgages.
The Obama plan got a strong endorsement Wednesday from the Financial Services Roundtable, which represents many of the largest mortgage lenders.
“Our member companies intend to implement the program for all at-risk borrowers consistent with program guidelines and contractual requirements,” the group said in a statement. “For the benefit of at-risk borrowers who are facing the loss of their homes, for communities and for our nation in this time of extraordinary economic challenges, it is imperative that investors and servicers that choose to participate in the program adopt a national standard model.”
In an administration background briefing that was conducted under the administration’s insistence on anonymity in order to speak freely, it was clear that the plan is far from a panacea.
Senior government and industry officials confirmed that homeowners who seek to refinance to the new low interest rates will have to foot the bill for a range of new fees that Fannie and Freddie require. It’s not clear whether these will have to be paid upfront or can be folded into the loans.
The officials also confirmed that there’s no standard procedure for lenders under the Fannie and Freddie portion of the plan. It will be up to each lender to determine whether the refinances go through them or whether mortgage brokers and other intermediaries can help homeowners seek refinanced loans under the program.
Officials were also careful to note that mortgage servicers won’t be able to modify mortgages if the terms of their contracts with the investors who own the pools of mortgages don’t allow it. That leaves matters at square one for many homeowners, since many investors, like lenders, have been reluctant to take losses in hopes of an eventual government bailout.
Officials confirmed that they have no reliable data on how many of these investors are on the other ends of contracts that prohibit mortgage modifications. That question is important, since many of the weakest loans underwritten during the height of the housing boom, from 2004 to 2006, were sold by now-defunct investment banks to investors abroad, many in Europe.
These pools of mortgages, called mortgage-backed securities, are the so-called toxic assets that are at the heart of the global banking meltdown. This unresolved question about their contract terms is relevant to recovery in housing and the financial sector.
So, who qualifies for help of what kind? Here are some answers for consumers:
Q: How do I know if I qualify?
A: Your mortgage must predate the start of 2009, you must live in the home and you’ll have to provide proof of income. Then ask two questions. First, are you already behind on payments or even in the foreclosure process? If the answer is no, then ask yourself whether your current mortgage rate is high enough to make it worth your while to refinance to take advantage of today’s low rates for 15-year and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Q: That’s it?
A: No. If you think it’s advantageous to refinance, you must find out who owns your loan. Most mortgages are bundled together and sold into a secondary market, where investors technically own them. If Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac placed your loan into the secondary market, you can contact the company that sends your monthly mortgage statement to discuss the new program. If your mortgage is in the portion of the secondary market where the private sector issued the mortgage-backed securities, you don’t qualify.
Q: How do I know who owns my loan?
A: You’ll have to ask the company that sends your monthly statement. These companies are sure to be swamped with calls this week, so be patient. And be warned: Borrowers have found in the past that mortgage-bill collectors-called servicers-often are less than forthcoming with answers as to who owns the loans.
Q: What if my loan is owned by Fannie or Freddie but I have negative equity?
A: You’re not alone. Researcher First American CoreLogic reported Wednesday that one in five homeowners nationwide now owes more than his or her home is worth. To qualify under the refinance portion of the Obama plan, you can owe up to 5% more than your home is now worth. Thus, many homeowners in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada, where home prices have plunged, won’t qualify.
Homeowners in 250 high-cost U.S. counties can seek help under either track, however, provided that they qualify, even if the mortgage is worth up to $729,750. This could help high-income homeowners in Middle America and the Northeast, where home prices haven’t fallen as much.
Q: What about those of us who are about to lose our homes?
A: A lot will depend on whether the mortgage bill collectors, the servicers, think that they have leeway from investors to modify the loans. They’re being offered an upfront fee of $1,000 and will get “pay for success” fees for three years if a borrower’s modified loan remains in good standing. They’re being offered even more fees if they get homeowners into this program before they fall behind on payments.
Q: What happens if the servicer agrees to modify my mortgage?
A: First, the servicer has to get your monthly payment down to 38% of your monthly after-tax income. It can do this by taking a loss on the loan or stretching a 30-year loan into a 40-year, for example. It’s allowed to reduce interest rates as low as 2%.
Once the 38% threshold is met, the government matches lenders dollar for dollar to get the payment even lower, to 31% of monthly after-tax income.
This percentage is calculated on the value of a first-lien mortgage. If a home carries a second lien-often called a second, or junior, lien-the servicer will get another $250 if it extinguishes the second mortgage.
Q: Is the modification a permanent fix?
A: The new interest rate would be valid for five years. Afterward, it can rise 1% a year until the lending rate hits the conforming loan survey rate at the time of the modification. Given that mortgage rates today are low by historical standards, the loan survey rate is likely to be well below the punishing adjustable rates that are at the heart of many distressed mortgages.
Q: Do lenders have to participate in Making Home Affordable?
A: If they’re getting Wall Street bailout money and hope to get any more, then they have to play ball. Many mortgage servicers are outside this realm, however, and their trade group, the American Securitization Forum, gave only lukewarm, qualified support to the Obama administration’s plan.
Q: Is there any way to force servicers to help homeowners?
A: The House of Representatives is expected to pass legislation this week that would allow bankruptcy judges to modify mortgages. This measure, which seems to have support in the Senate, too, would let judges shave off of mortgages the difference between what homeowners owe and what their homes are now worth. This would give homeowners some leverage in negotiations.
Q: But don’t these homeowners deserve what they get for overextending themselves?
A: Some think so. There are two parties to a bad deal, however-people who bought too much home and lenders who let their underwriting standards fail in lending to them. Somebody has to lose. The Obama administration is betting that keeping owners in their homes helps set a floor under prices. Critics think that only the marketplace can find a floor for home prices.
© 2009, McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
The Other Side of the Story
The beauty of these crazy low prices is crazy low monthly payments for homeowners that are taking advantage of this nationwide real estate sale. However, the other side of the coin holds a different story for renters and landlords.
When rents are high, investment properties are very profitable, easy income -if you have a management company doing all the heavy lifting of course. However, when rents go down, renters rejoice but your profit margin frowns. Now, with home prices being so low, moderate income buyers can purchase a home for equal or less monthly cost than renting someone else's home. A home they can't paint, remodel, or improve.
Even so, this speaks again to the profitability of buying investment properties only because the overhead is low as well. Then in 5+ years when you go to sell it, you've just made quite a lovely profit.
Check out this link for a Wall Street Journal article that covers the whole issue:
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB123552129423664663-lMyQjAxMDI5MzI1NTUyMjUxWj.html
When rents are high, investment properties are very profitable, easy income -if you have a management company doing all the heavy lifting of course. However, when rents go down, renters rejoice but your profit margin frowns. Now, with home prices being so low, moderate income buyers can purchase a home for equal or less monthly cost than renting someone else's home. A home they can't paint, remodel, or improve.
Even so, this speaks again to the profitability of buying investment properties only because the overhead is low as well. Then in 5+ years when you go to sell it, you've just made quite a lovely profit.
Check out this link for a Wall Street Journal article that covers the whole issue:
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB123552129423664663-lMyQjAxMDI5MzI1NTUyMjUxWj.html
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Q&A on the New Housing Plan
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/19/your-money/mortgages/19modify.html?_r=1&emc=eta1
Above is a link to a New York Times article that addresses the frequently asked questions regarding the new mortgage incentives as a part of the Obama Housing Plan.
Check this out for detailed information and to see if it can help you, or someone you know.
Give us a call if you have any other questions 775-828-3292.
Above is a link to a New York Times article that addresses the frequently asked questions regarding the new mortgage incentives as a part of the Obama Housing Plan.
Check this out for detailed information and to see if it can help you, or someone you know.
Give us a call if you have any other questions 775-828-3292.
Monday, January 12, 2009
We Need To Go On A Diet
I just heard David give the best analogy to describe our market:
"Imagine I gained 200 pounds, can you picture how big my pants would have to be? Now imagine I lost all that weight really fast, but I still had to wear the same pants. I'd be little but my pants would be huge, THEY WOULDN'T FIT!
That's what our market is like; a thin pool of motivated buyers swimming around in an ocean of homes. We have to tailor down our oversized inventory to fit our thin buyer pool."
Ok folks, 2008 was a doozey and unless we want to prolong the pain past 2009, we need sellers to get realistic about fair market value and we need buyers to come to the table with serious, well-written offers.
We still have some muck to wade through (read: short sales and foreclosures), but all signs point to increased units sold in the latter half of 2009, which will help increase competition by tailoring down our inventory.
If the vibes and changes that come down from capitol hill boost consumer confidence, all sales fields will feel the love.
For anyone out there thinking about putting an offer in on a short sale:
I've noticed banks drawing a line when it comes to how low they will go and the "10% rule" doesn't cut it anymore. Unless you are right on, or darn close to, asking price (assuming it's a well-priced home), expect to see a counter from the bank at or above asking price. If they keep this up and more buyers agree to these terms, you will see a price floor form fast.
"Imagine I gained 200 pounds, can you picture how big my pants would have to be? Now imagine I lost all that weight really fast, but I still had to wear the same pants. I'd be little but my pants would be huge, THEY WOULDN'T FIT!
That's what our market is like; a thin pool of motivated buyers swimming around in an ocean of homes. We have to tailor down our oversized inventory to fit our thin buyer pool."
Ok folks, 2008 was a doozey and unless we want to prolong the pain past 2009, we need sellers to get realistic about fair market value and we need buyers to come to the table with serious, well-written offers.
We still have some muck to wade through (read: short sales and foreclosures), but all signs point to increased units sold in the latter half of 2009, which will help increase competition by tailoring down our inventory.
If the vibes and changes that come down from capitol hill boost consumer confidence, all sales fields will feel the love.
For anyone out there thinking about putting an offer in on a short sale:
I've noticed banks drawing a line when it comes to how low they will go and the "10% rule" doesn't cut it anymore. Unless you are right on, or darn close to, asking price (assuming it's a well-priced home), expect to see a counter from the bank at or above asking price. If they keep this up and more buyers agree to these terms, you will see a price floor form fast.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Happy New Year!
We hope everyone had a wonderful holiday season and we wish you the best for 2009.
Stay tuned for a look back on 2008 and what to expect over this next year.
Stay tuned for a look back on 2008 and what to expect over this next year.
Friday, November 7, 2008
November 2008-sans stats
I have one thing to say, BUY, BUY, BUY. If ever there was a time to get off of the fence it is now. I encourage all of you to BUY, and your friends to buy. As of today we are below 2004 values, year-to-date, with the exception of area 171 (southwest suburban) and that area is trending down as well.
The foreclosed market is finite, one TRILLION dollars is going to make a difference in this market and now is the time to buy. Over this weekend JP Morgan (read Washington Mutual) has acknowledged that the company needs to re think the foreclosure process and even go beyond to look at homeowners that are in good standing today but may become distressed sellers tomorrow. Other lenders are beginning to show signs of similar thinking.
Are the prices going to descend lower? Here is food for thought:
Double Diamond/Damonte Ranch, one of the hot beds for distressed sales, data is for homes under $300,000 sold in 2008 by quarters:
1st quarter sales: 21 homes sold for an average of $267,258
2nd quarter sales: 37 homes sold for an average of $263,010
3rd quarter sales: 47 homes sold for an average of $262,347
That is a change in values of only 2% over 10 months. The average home in escrow today is $265,627. I have to ask you is this the picture of a bottomless market?
With a trillion dollars and banks possibly rethinking how they foreclose, we are in a great position to see inventory drop and choices dry up. I am not suggesting a price bounce of any measure now, or any time soon. What I do see is that the deals of today will disappear much sooner than buyers realize.
Where are the good buys? Just about anywhere you look and for whatever your budget is. I do not see any price recovery for homes valued after late 2003 through mid-2007 for several years or more. The real road to recovery will be for the sellers that sell today and buy back into these much reduced values and ride the recovery from the bottom up. Holding on is going to be expensive for those that really want to sell and are trying to “hold out” for the market to “go up.”
Oh, one last thought, I have purposely written this on November the 3rd. Whatever happens tomorrow, regardless of your feelings, a major milestone will be behind us and we will all have the same opportunity to move forward for the better and look up. I for one plan on moving forward and I expect to find willing and capable buyers for every one of my clients and for my buyers, to find them a home that they can be proud of for many years to come.
The foreclosed market is finite, one TRILLION dollars is going to make a difference in this market and now is the time to buy. Over this weekend JP Morgan (read Washington Mutual) has acknowledged that the company needs to re think the foreclosure process and even go beyond to look at homeowners that are in good standing today but may become distressed sellers tomorrow. Other lenders are beginning to show signs of similar thinking.
Are the prices going to descend lower? Here is food for thought:
Double Diamond/Damonte Ranch, one of the hot beds for distressed sales, data is for homes under $300,000 sold in 2008 by quarters:
1st quarter sales: 21 homes sold for an average of $267,258
2nd quarter sales: 37 homes sold for an average of $263,010
3rd quarter sales: 47 homes sold for an average of $262,347
That is a change in values of only 2% over 10 months. The average home in escrow today is $265,627. I have to ask you is this the picture of a bottomless market?
With a trillion dollars and banks possibly rethinking how they foreclose, we are in a great position to see inventory drop and choices dry up. I am not suggesting a price bounce of any measure now, or any time soon. What I do see is that the deals of today will disappear much sooner than buyers realize.
Where are the good buys? Just about anywhere you look and for whatever your budget is. I do not see any price recovery for homes valued after late 2003 through mid-2007 for several years or more. The real road to recovery will be for the sellers that sell today and buy back into these much reduced values and ride the recovery from the bottom up. Holding on is going to be expensive for those that really want to sell and are trying to “hold out” for the market to “go up.”
Oh, one last thought, I have purposely written this on November the 3rd. Whatever happens tomorrow, regardless of your feelings, a major milestone will be behind us and we will all have the same opportunity to move forward for the better and look up. I for one plan on moving forward and I expect to find willing and capable buyers for every one of my clients and for my buyers, to find them a home that they can be proud of for many years to come.
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